The Buyer Is Rotating
Off-Primary, June 2026
The Buyer Is Rotating. Here Is What the Data Shows.
For the first time in the history of the UBS Global Family Office survey, 60% of family offices plan to change their strategic asset allocation in the next 12 months. The prior high was roughly 35%. The survey covered 307 family offices across 30 markets with an average net worth of $2.7 billion.
The previous three editions of this newsletter focused on the supply side of the secondary market: concentration, the vacancy thesis, and the IPO readiness of the top names. This edition focuses on the demand side. The buyer base is restructuring.
The PE Allocation Decline
Family office allocations to private equity have fallen from 22% of portfolios in 2023 to 17% in 2025 and 2026. That is a 23% reduction in share of wallet over two years.
The decline is not a single-year adjustment. It is a multi-year trend that has accelerated as public equity returns have outperformed PE distributions and LP patience with illiquidity has thinned.
But the total allocation number does not tell the full story. The composition within PE is shifting in a way that matters more for secondary market participants.
Direct Investments vs. Fund Commitments
Through 2019, 2020, and 2021, family offices allocated more capital to direct investments than to funds. In 2021, direct investments represented 13% of portfolios versus 8% in funds and funds of funds. Since then, the split has equalized and is trending toward funds.
This is the data point that matters most for the secondary market.
Family offices that invest directly are the natural buyer base for secondary blocks, structured SPVs, and co-investment opportunities. They can move quickly, negotiate directly, and size positions on their own terms. When they rotate toward fund commitments, the capital does not leave private markets. It gets intermediated through GPs who control deployment timing, deal selection, and access.
The allocator who could wire $5 million into a secondary SPV on two weeks’ notice is becoming the allocator who commits $50 million to a fund that deploys over three years.
The Dollar Problem
65% of family offices expect confidence in the US dollar’s reserve status to weaken over the coming year. Only 6% expect it to strengthen. 29% are already reducing exposure to USD-denominated assets.
This matters because private markets are overwhelmingly dollar-denominated. 88% of UBS survey respondents are based outside the United States. When the majority of the global buyer base is actively hedging or reducing dollar exposure, it creates a pricing headwind for USD-denominated secondary deal flow that has not been discussed in any of the major secondaries market commentary.
| Region | Planning Changes |
|---|---|
| Middle East | 82% |
| Southeast Asia | 81% |
| North Asia | 71% |
| Europe (ex-CH) | 67% |
| Latin America | 61% |
| Switzerland | 43% |
| United States | 21% |
The regional dispersion is significant. The US is the only cohort where the vast majority of offices are not planning changes. American family offices increased domestic allocations from 86% to 88%. They are leaning in while the rest of the world diversifies away.
Where the Money Is Going Instead
The reallocation out of PE and direct investments is flowing into specific asset classes. The shifts are incremental in percentage terms but directionally clear.
| Asset Class | 2025 Allocation | 2026 Target | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Developed Market Equities | 26% | 26% | Stable |
| Fixed Income | 15% | 15% | Stable |
| Private Equity | 17% | 17% | Declining |
| Real Estate | 11% | 8% | Declining |
| Gold/Precious Metals | 2% | 3% | Rising |
| Infrastructure | 1% | 2% | Rising |
| Private Credit | 3% | 3% | Stable |
| Hedge Funds | 6% | 6% | Stable |
Three observations stand out.
Real estate is being cut aggressively at the global level. The average allocation has fallen from 14% in 2019 to a target of 8% in 2026. The exception is the United States, where family office real estate allocations have doubled over the past three years to 20%, driven by supply constraints in multifamily housing and tax advantages.
Gold allocations are rising despite the metal sitting near all-time highs. Gold is up 35% from a year ago. Family offices are buying it anyway. The rationale is structural, not tactical: falling real rates and dollar diversification make gold an allocation hedge rather than a trade.
Infrastructure is emerging as a new allocation category. Family offices historically allocated zero to infrastructure. The average is now 2%. AI-related infrastructure (data centers, power, cooling) is the primary driver.
AI: Everyone Wants It, but the Access Path Is Changing
Artificial intelligence is the dominant investment theme across every region surveyed. 65% of family offices globally are already invested across the AI value chain. In Southeast Asia, the figure is 88%.
| Region | AI Investment Rate |
|---|---|
| Southeast Asia | 88% |
| Latin America | 77% |
| North Asia | 74% |
| Global Average | 65% |
| United States | 65% |
| Switzerland | 59% |
| Europe (ex-CH) | 57% |
| Middle East | 50% |
The companies that dominate secondary market trading (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, Databricks) are the same companies family offices say they want more exposure to. But the mechanism for accessing them is changing.
As family offices shift from direct investments to fund vehicles, fewer of them will participate directly in secondary SPVs, tender offer allocations, or broker-mediated block trades. The capital still wants AI exposure. It is increasingly accessing it through GP-led vehicles, thematic funds, and structured products rather than through direct secondary market participation.
The Governance Gap: A 10-Year Supply Catalyst
The UBS report surfaced a finding that has direct implications for secondary market supply over the next decade.
Only 35% of family offices have a succession plan for the office itself. Only 27% have a structured process to prepare the next generation for future roles. 56% of offices surveyed serve a first-generation principal. 58% serve a second generation.
UBS estimates roughly $83 trillion in assets will transfer between generations over the coming decades. When those transitions happen without documented succession plans, the default response for illiquid holdings is often phased liquidation. Private equity positions, direct investments, and secondary holdings enter the market as forced supply.
This is not a governance concern. It is a forward supply signal.
Estate-driven secondary blocks differ from other seller categories. The seller is typically a fiduciary rather than a principal. The timeline is dictated by tax and legal requirements rather than market conditions. And the holdings tend to be diversified across multiple names rather than concentrated in a single position.
For allocators building secondary strategies today, the governance gap represents a structural supply tailwind with a runway measured in decades, not quarters.
What We Are Watching
The intermediation thesis. As family offices move from direct to fund allocations, the secondary market’s buyer base is getting more concentrated and more intermediated. The platforms, brokers, and SPV managers who built their businesses around direct access to family office capital will need to adapt. Watch for partnerships between secondary platforms and GP-led vehicle sponsors.
The regional split in buyer behavior. US family offices are the one cohort not rotating. 88% domestic allocation. Increasing, not decreasing. If mega-IPOs deliver distributions to US allocators over the next 12 months, the capital recycling into the next tier of secondary names may be a predominantly American story.
Structured secondaries over pure equity. Private credit allocations holding at 3% while PE declines means family offices prefer yield and duration certainty over illiquid equity upside. Secondary opportunities structured with preferred returns, downside protection, or hybrid characteristics will find more receptive capital than pure equity at narrow discounts.
The dollar as a deal variable. If 65% of global family offices are hedging or reducing USD exposure, secondary deal structuring will need to accommodate multi-currency preferences, hedged vehicles, or non-USD pricing for international buyers. This is a structural change in how deals get done, not a temporary headwind.